Geopolitics01
Oil ends October sharply higher as attacks on Hormuz shipping mount
5 stories · War basket
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Curated intel.
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AI, Macro and Geopolitics desks, curated daily with the moves, catalysts and market odds behind each story.
Macro · Rates & Policy · Fed Watch02
End-2026 rate odds
4.25%
68.7% odds · Polymarket probabilities
AI03
Intel plunges on a weak forecast while Nvidia falls less
AI Intel Read · 7 layers
Earnings Desk04
Exxon Mobil and Chevron beat forecasts on record refining profits
CNBC
Headlines and figures from the GlobalEye desks and app screens, Oct 30–31, 2026. Fed Watch odds are Polymarket probabilities shown in the app.
Three ways to
read the price.
Price action. Implied range. Prediction markets.
Price action
SPY · Illustrative session
$580
Options-implied range
SPY · 1 month
$551–$609
Around a $580 spot · illustrative one-standard-deviation band
Prediction markets
Next Fed decision · Example
Hold68%
Cut32%
Price action shows what has traded. Read the move before exploring what may come next.
Illustrative data. Estimates and probabilities are not guarantees.
See the price.
Explore what markets expect.
WTI crude
Illustrative session · USD per barrel
$103.27
+4.16%View illustrative session values
Start $99.40 · Midpoint $101.30 · End $103.27. The example session is not the reference period for the separate +4.16% sample change.
Prediction market
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ?
11.5%
Yes probability
What this comparison shows
A commodity price and an event probability answer different questions. Compare them for context; neither establishes what will happen.
WTI session is illustrative · Hormuz probabilities are Polymarket Yes prices, snapshot Oct 31, 2026, 1:22 PM ET · Market-implied, not a forecast · Strait artwork is illustrative.
Built on professional-grade data.
Made for everyone.
Compare Treasury yields with market-implied policy expectations.
U.S. Treasury curve
11 maturities · Yield (%)
10Y − 2Y+31 bp
30Y − 5Y+51 bp
View all 11 yields
- 1M
- 4.11%
- 3M
- 4.22%
- 6M
- 4.29%
- 1Y
- 4.41%
- 2Y
- 4.65%
- 3Y
- 4.72%
- 5Y
- 4.78%
- 7Y
- 4.86%
- 10Y
- 4.96%
- 20Y
- 5.32%
- 30Y
- 5.29%
Fed policy path
Expected midpoint (%)
Next FOMC · Illustrative
Hold
68%
25 bp cut
32%
View policy checkpoints
- Current
- 4.25%
- Dec
- 4.17%
- Mar
- 4.00%
- Jun
- 3.83%
- Sep
- 3.75%
The Treasury curve compares yields across maturity categories. The spreads put the shape in context.
Illustrative data. Tenors and months are categorical checkpoints. Market expectations are not forecasts.
Beyond the AI trade.
Into the economics.
Track token prices, GPU rental costs, and the capital building AI.
Token pricing$2 / $8Input / Output per 1M tokens · Sample provider
Read input and output prices separately, using the same token unit. Provider and model terms matter.
GPU rentals$2.40per GPU-hour · H100 · on-demand sample
Compare the same GPU model and rental basis. Availability, region and contract terms can change the price.
Capex$18Breported · $20B guidance · Sample company
Keep reported investment separate from forward guidance. They describe different periods and levels of certainty.
Illustrative data. These sample figures are not current provider or company quotes.
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